Ukraine crisis, BRICS and Dependency
Ukraine
crisis is generally viewed as geopolitics between EU and Russia, but there is
another perspective of this situation. Ukraine
is the transit nations for the energy supplies that make her victim of
Geopolitics. Transit Nations are crucial
for the geopolitics since it connects the Trade routes. Hence, it is important to review Ukraine
crisis within the perspective of Transit Nations and Geopolitics created under
the new arrangement of BRICS. Further Ukraine
is also borderland and Crimea possesses a prominent Port for the Trade
relations. The Energy Economy plays a crucial role in infrastructure
development towards the transport corridor.
Ukraine plays an important role as a transit country for the
delivery of Russian energy to the EU. Russia
as an energy supplier, the European Union (EU) as an energy buyer and Ukraine
both as a buyer and as a transit country of Russian energy to the EU are
interconnected links in this energy chain. Eighty percent of Russia's overall
natural gas (NG) exports to the EU (20 percent of all the NG consumed in the
EU) goes via Ukraine. The
Russian Federation (RF) accounts for 32 percent of the EU's overall oil
imports, and
approximately half of it is transported via Ukraine.[1]
This is
the reality of political economy of the region, where the Energies Conglomerate
influences in creating Trade policies and foreign relations. The two players in the Geopolitics of the
region, i.e., EU and Russia want to have control over Ukraine being a pivotal location
towards Trade relations. The critical
situation in the region is mainly because there is an absence of International decorum
along with the recognition of State Sovereignty under International Law.
The EU and Ukraine, dependent on imported NG from and/or via
Russia, pursue four main objectives: first, to secure NG supplies; second, to
ensure that the imported NG is available at “reasonable” prices, which they are
able to pay; and third, to see that the supply of imported NG proceeds without
interruptions initiated by the supplier. Fourth,
because of the vulnerability to the real disruptions of supply or even to a
threat of disruptions, which gives Russia a political lever or “weapon” against
both the EU and Ukraine, the two actors are interested in diversifying their
sources of gas deliveries. Failures to achieve these goals may have serious
negative consequences for their stability and security.[2]
The dependency in the Energy issues is mainly on the core
nations than the periphery nation as it is an export of essential resources, which
is the life-line of any State/Economy.
The sense of inconsistency of the procurement handling, i.e. reasonable
pricing, non-stop availability and secured supplies influences the foreign
relations and creating a bloc for the users and suppliers. This creates a gap in the trade-relations
which further influences other trade and security policies.
The growing gap between Buyers and Suppliers for the Energies
is creating a lobby system and foreign alignment that is also influencing other
trade and international relations. This
resulting transit nations either victim surrendering its own foreign policies,
which is further effecting its economy and political stability.
The Russia using its Energy resources as a political lever in
the region is part of BRICS policy.
BRICS is under creating Transit corridors that will control the Global
Trade policies. Control of Ukraine as a
transit nation to EU for energies supplies will make Russia in the dictating
terms. This was already felt while
dependency on Russian transit infrastructure in Caspian /Central Asia region.
Even though the RIC was conceptualized as a club of the Big
3 in Asia and had more political overtones than economic reality, the
vocabulary of cooperation emanating from previous RIC forum allows enough
leeway to work towards the formation of an Asian Economic Zone beginning with
an Asian Trading Region largely driven by Russia, India and China.[3]
The theory of Transport corridor that has multilateral
arrangement that facilitate Global Trading requirements should be evaluated
within the perspective of national policies and national trading arrangement. The Russian advancement towards the transport
corridors is an imperialistic agenda to control the foreign relations in the
region. What happens when these trading
corridors are created, the regional trading will become dependent on the RIC trading system and the small countries
and/or indigenous economy will get disconnect with the Global Trading
system. When the Indigenous economy will
disconnect with the global trading system, it will automatically shrink and
gradually die its own death. It is
something similar to the British Forest Act[4]
of the Colonial rule that alienated the tribal from their ancestry possession
of the forest economy and let them under acute poverty and alienated community
towards to beneficiary of the mercantile community. BRICS is an extension of the British Crown imperialistic
agenda through the control of the life line of the State through Energy
Securities.
The August war in Georgia demonstrated some risks associated
with the functioning of the transit energy corridor in the southern Caucasus.
It also demonstrated the need for broader security guarantees for a region that
is vital to European and global energy security. The most important finding of
the paper is that while the corridor has a tremendous potential to augment its
transit capabilities with new pipelines, railroads, marine and air ports, the
security of the South Caucasus transportation corridor cannot be taken for
granted. Moreover, Western countries will need to ensure stability and security
in the region in order for the corridor to meet its full potential.[5]
This is a major concern for the transport corridors that is
built by the foreign investors. These
transports corridors breach the border security and give easy access towards
insurgency and smuggling since the State loses its control over the foreign
investors and borders get into the private hands. This will later be proliferated be into
transnational crime zone through insurgency and infiltration, which will breach
security of the respective country.
The biggest gainer would, however, be Russia. They would have a market
for their resources outside of the EU and China. As the demand in West Asia is
released in the next 10 years due to growing commercialization of green
technologies and production of shale and frontier gas in US and East Europe,
Russia would increasingly depend on the growing demand from China and India.
Without a cooperative arrangement or transport infrastructure, large volumes of
Russian resources may have only one buyer - China.[6]
A Russia vision to penetrate the market of West Asia and
expand its market for Natural resources is a neo-colonization through transport
corridors. Trade routes are the
life-line of any country and if it is controlled by any foreign body, then the
local economy become subjugated to the foreign body. Trade routes/corridors are National
possession and should be under State control.
Foreign Traders should pay tax for using the trade route since these
trade routes generate the economy of the State that is meant for the Welfare
measures for the population.
The role and the accountability of the Transit Nation such as
in the case of Ukraine with Russia and EU also need accountability since it has
the trade relations and investment for energies in the region. Trade insecurities like in case of Russia
that is vulnerable to the disruptions of its deliveries to the EU by Ukraine.
The latter is able to divert NG, transported for the EU, for its internal
purposes. The transit pipelines, which bind Russia and Ukraine, were built
while the two countries were parts of one state – the USSR – not only as
transit, but also as supply pipelines. Any disruptions of internal supplies may
cause problems for external transit, as the pressure in the pipelines will
change. It is difficult to decouple the two processes. Since
Ukraine is a sovereign nation, so the pipelines that this built is now the
property of Ukraine and there should be some negotiating terms that can make
Ukraine free from the clutches of the bartering trade. This will make Ukraine independent in the
policies and revive its economy.
Russian-EU relations are characterized by asymmetric
interdependence, in which the EU is more important for Russia than Russia is
for the EU. Energy
(oil and especially gas) has been a means of increasing Russia's power
capabilities, as it makes Russia more equal and more important. Russia is also
dependent on the large revenues received from its sales of energy to the EU. Russia's
energy export has been directed primarily to the EU, that is, we are dealing
with vulnerability to demand. In spite of Russia's export diversification
attempts, China, for instance, is paying lower prices for Russian energy. If
the EU's import of Russian energy is reduced, Russia will lose a significant
part of its revenues, and “this fear is the driver that leads Moscow to
domineering policies.” All in
all, traditional energy geopolitics – where the supplier has a “weapon” against
the importers of its energy customers – becomes much more complex in the case of Russia-EU-Ukraine relations.[7] In addition, competition is growing between
Russian and EU energy companies, supported by the states, with respect to the
presence in the market of Ukraine. [8]
The presence of Russian oil and gas businesses in Ukraine's
market is viewed in geopolitical terms and this is why the EU (and US)
businesses, supported by their governments, are trying to counter the
activities of the Russian actors. Russian oil companies own more than half of
the Ukrainian petroleum market and they control most of the oil refinery
business as well as some other strategic sectors of the Ukrainian market. Even
though it is debatable whether the Russian state controls Gazprom and oil
companies or energy enterprises use their connections to the state to achieve
their goals, what matters within the framework of this study is that political
and economic interest groups and political and commercial interests are closely
intertwined.[9]
Under such situation it is necessary to have a Global
Tribunal towards grievances redress and arbitration mechanism that focuses the
concern of buyers and suppliers issue for the Energies that has global network
so that all parties can place its grievances in case of the dispute arises. The role of Transit Nation should be based on
Rent of land under lease system and payment of Tax for using the periphery
resources since it is an Economy of the State and the benefit of this economy
should reach to its people as welfare measure.
The role of Conglomerates should be restricted and should have no
influence in manipulating the Trade and foreign policies. The monopoly of the Energies supplies that
dominate International Relations and foreign policies of the buyers and transit
nations will thus become restricted under the Trade ethic under the vigilance
of the Tribunal system.
[1]
Geopolitics, Volume 16, Issue 3,
2011, Special Issue: The Geopolitics of Energy Supply in the ‘Wider
Europe’ http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14650045.2011.520863#EN0001
[2]
ibid
[4] HISTORICAL
INJUSTICE TOWARD TRIBALS: A REFLECTION ON FOREST POLICIES OF INDIA http://www.indianresearchjournals.com/pdf/IJSSIR/2012/November/11.pdf
[5] http://www.jamestown.org/uploads/media/Full_Mamuka_RussiaGeorgia.pdf
[6] http://orfonline.org/cms/export/orfonline/html/Brics/article4.html
[7] Geopolitics, Volume 16, Issue 3,
2011, Special Issue: The Geopolitics of Energy Supply in the ‘Wider
Europe’ http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14650045.2011.520863#EN0001
[8]
ibid
[9]
Ibid
